Author(s): Adedeji Daniel Gbadebo
This study explores the asymmetric impacts of energy consumption and economic growth on Pakistan’s ecological footprint over the period 1970–2022. Using annual data, we apply unit root tests with structural breaks, the BDS test for nonlinearity, and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics. The results reveal that positive shocks to energy consumption (EC) and GDP significantly increase the ecological footprint, whereas negative shocks have smaller corrective effects. Moreover, urbanisation and trade openness exert significant upward pressures on environmental degradation. Diagnostic tests confirm model robustness and the persistence of nonlinearity. These findings imply that Pakistan’s environmental degradation is path-dependent and asymmetrically driven by economic and energy dynamics. Policymakers should prioritise renewable energy adoption, promote energy efficiency, and integrate environmental safeguards into trade and urban policies to ensure sustainable development.